REAL WORLD

Posted at  9:02 a.m. ET

It's easy to get wrapped up in the name game being played about possible cabinet choices, especially with Hillary Clinton's name now in the mix.  But there are more serious matters the president-elect must deal with.  Terror attacks tend to come in the first year of a presidency, or in the months before, and Mr. Obama has been warned, as The Times of London reports:

Barack Obama is being given ominous advice from leaders on both sides of the Atlantic to brace himself for an early assault from terrorists.

General Michael Hayden, director of the CIA, this week acknowledged that there were dangers during a presidential transition when new officials were coming in and getting accustomed to the challenges. But he added that no “real or artificial spike” in intercepted transmissions from terror suspects had been detected.

Reminds us of the continuing threat.  Not only could a new attack cause horrible human damage - the most important fact - but it could devastate an already weakened economy.

Lord West of Spithead, the Home Office Security Minister, spoke recently of a “huge threat”, saying: “There is another great plot building up again and we are monitoring this.”

Intelligence chiefs on both sides of the Atlantic have indicated that such warnings refer more to a general sense of foreboding than fear of an imminent or specific plan.

The fact is that our human intelligence on terror groups remains spotty.  We are depending on technical intelligence, which, you can be sure, will be targeted by leftist groups when the new administration comes in.

"AlQaeda, operating from its safe haven in Pakistan’s tribal areas, remains the most clear and present danger to the safety of the United States,” General Hayden said.

The hunt for al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden “is very much at the top of CIA’s priority list,” he added. “Because of his iconic stature, his death or capture clearly would have a significant impact on the confidence of his followers.”

And...

In Britain, security officials say that there is genuine concern that alQaeda will attempt a “spectacular” in the transition period, but suggest that it may be aimed more at Mr Bush than Mr Obama.

“As far as we know there is nothing from the intelligence world to indicate that anything has changed dramatically in recent months to put us on alert for an attack at the moment,” a source said. The present threat level is “severe”, which is the second-highest alert status. But a senior counterterrorism official suggested last month that this should be regarded as “the severe end of severe."

One thing about the Brit security services - they take these threats seriously, which is difficult in a country whose political and intellectual classes are obsessed with political correctness.

Britain and the US are sharing all intelligence on suspected terrorist activity because of the high risk of a plot involving transatlantic flights. Al-Qaeda is understood still to be obsessed with mounting an attack using passenger airliners.

It worked for them before.  It's logical.

James Lewis, a security expert with the Centre of Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said that al-Qaeda may wish to provoke a reaction from the next US Administration designed to show the rest of the world that “America is still the evil crusader."

Obama is getting briefings on this, as the story says.  It's got to have a sobering effect on his choices for key security positions.  No time for fooling around or naming symbols, like Chuck Hagel.  If we get on Obama's watch, there'll be the immediate comparison with President Bush "keeping us safe," and Obama knows it.

November 15, 2008.